Historically, we have been in the Middle East for three basic reasons:
1) There’s lots of oil there, and we needed oil to drive our economy’s growth; 2) We didn’t want the Russians there; and 3) A strong relationship with Israel has been important to us for many reasons.
In today’s world, we are now net exporters of oil, so we don’t need oil from the Middle East to grow our economy. While Russia has a presence in the Middle East, that relationship is unstable, intermittent and opportunistic, so it is unlikely it can ever become dominant, or even much more than meddling. It does not pose the threat that it may have in the past.
The Middle East is not physically close to the U.S., so it doesn’t pose any direct threat to our borders, nor does it offer any proximate opportunities in terms of bilateral trade. As a region, it is, however, one of our largest customer bases in terms of military and defense sales, and our partnerships in the region are important and meaningful to our national security and intelligence gathering programs, so we have an interest in maintaining strong relationships there.
Since we don’t have any large economic interests to protect, there is no need or compelling reason for us to have a large military presence or influence in the region. The only marginally compelling reason would be if we are getting paid to be there in order to protect an ally or strategic partner, or to maintain stability in the region, which stability would be in our economic interests. This then becomes a straightforward analysis: How much are we getting paid and what are our opportunity costs? Could we better and more profitably allocate those resources elsewhere?
Finally, politically it is not clear that our JudeoChristian core values are necessarily aligned with those of the majority of the nations in the Middle East, and it is clear that they are opposite to many nations in the region. The one clear exception of course would be Israel. So, ultimately, we must ask, “To what extent are individual countries in the Middle East aligning their interests with ours, and to what extent are their interests aligned with those of our adversaries in the region instead?” Because economic growth for the U.S. must be at the top of our foreign policy agenda, we should pay close attention to which countries are actually contributing to our economy through direct investment in the U.S., and where and how they are doing that. Are they enthusiastic and long-term in their thinking? Do they respect us and want to develop relationships throughout the country, especially in rural states, that are not necessarily obvious investment opportunities, or are they merely opportunistic investors who respond only when there is pressure to do so, or when their country is under existential threat from their neighbors?
In short, we must have a clear understanding of each Middle Eastern country’s agenda and motives, their partnerships and alliances, the activities they sponsor or condone, and their overall approach to their relationship with the U.S.